We seldom talk about the future on this blog. Many of us make the mistake that the future follows a linear line from the past to the present. However there are ups and downs along a general path. There was defeatist talk in the 70's after Vietnam that the planet would fall to Communist hegemony. For a while the forces of evil did expand and spread class genocide and death. Yet in the late eithies it imploded and where it exists today it is more a type of political corruption than a threat. Even in Accademia this is more of a story of nepotism than a coherent philosophy.
Iran is in the news and it offers challenges and opportunities. Many of you are aware that I am a fan and friend of noted Iranian writer Amil Imani whose latest writing is linked by Michal Ledeen. Amil has never written a single sentence advocating an American invasion of Iran. Such a move would boost support for an unpopular regime that is on its way to its own demise.
Iran is declining and faces many serious problems. It has serveral indigenous people seeking independence or to be reunited with their bretheren across borders. The oil economy is in its last stages and even if the nuclear program were 100% for civilian use this would hardly do more than postpone the inevitable. Iran also has a severe drug problem and all of this is being obscured by belicose rhetoric from the Mullahs.
The Iranian people are the countries best resource. In a modern economy human capital trumps natural resources. Japan has no natural resources, but it does have a first rate educational system. Long term natural resources are also dependent of human inovation. As prices for comodities rise cheaper alternatives are found. The notion that Oil as we know it today will be the key source of energy even ten years from now is just unknown. Maybe coal gasification will be a real energy source. Our enemies both Commie and Jihadi are extrapolating from the present to the future.
However, mankind has seen the experiments with Marxist and Theological utopias fail miserably. This is not to imply that religion is a spent or evil force. The notion
that a state should be run as a theocracy is absurd. In a coherent country religion is respected and not enforced by fiat. There are places where religion is enforced by religious goon squads notably Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, they also start with 50% of the population out of the labor pool. Moreover religious minorites live in a Jim Crow status and by nature of what they are must be authoritarian. Israel's version of Corpral Klinger has advocated expulsion for residents with a Jewish father and non-Jewish mother. His slightly more lucid mentor advocates an offer of conversion or expulsion.
Iran is at its apex of power now and the longer we wait the weaker it becomes. We could eliminate the Iranian Navy but the impact on oil prices would be disasterous.
We could arm rebel groups in the Azeri and Kurdish regions. This would force Iran to focusdeal with its own insurgent mess. Ultimately the use of direct force should be on the table for leverage.
The situation in Iran is not as dire as many think. The question is not if the Mullahs will fall it is a question of where and when and we need an eye on the future.
Beamish in 08. What impact will this new media advisor have on the Beamish 08 campaign.
Many of you have inquired about what Beakerambo has been doing. He had a disasterous tryout for Dancing with the stars. His partner remains in a body cast as of this writing. His role as an exchange student in the next Harry Potter film ended up cut out of the film.
Harry: That exchange student is a disaster.
Hermonie: Yes but he is popular with the women.
Harry: Can you make sense of Professor Beamish's blast radius theories.
Hermonie: It seems that Beakerambo has mastered Profesor Beamish's theories of enhanced firepower. Even if he is a magical zero he gets the point across.
Harry: Beakerambo did you study levitation.
Beakerambo; Me Me Me Meep Privacy Mi Me Meep
Harry: Are you an idiot?
Beakerambo: Me me mi meep Lock and load meep
Hermonie; Harry remember Beakerambo may be a magical zero but he is Prof Beamish's top student in applied firepower.
Harry: There he goes no matter how many times he falls down flights of steps he never gets hurt.