Monday, April 02, 2007

The future

We seldom talk about the future on this blog. Many of us make the mistake that the future follows a linear line from the past to the present. However there are ups and downs along a general path. There was defeatist talk in the 70's after Vietnam that the planet would fall to Communist hegemony. For a while the forces of evil did expand and spread class genocide and death. Yet in the late eithies it imploded and where it exists today it is more a type of political corruption than a threat. Even in Accademia this is more of a story of nepotism than a coherent philosophy.

Iran is in the news and it offers challenges and opportunities. Many of you are aware that I am a fan and friend of noted Iranian writer Amil Imani whose latest writing is linked by Michal Ledeen. Amil has never written a single sentence advocating an American invasion of Iran. Such a move would boost support for an unpopular regime that is on its way to its own demise.

Iran is declining and faces many serious problems. It has serveral indigenous people seeking independence or to be reunited with their bretheren across borders. The oil economy is in its last stages and even if the nuclear program were 100% for civilian use this would hardly do more than postpone the inevitable. Iran also has a severe drug problem and all of this is being obscured by belicose rhetoric from the Mullahs.

The Iranian people are the countries best resource. In a modern economy human capital trumps natural resources. Japan has no natural resources, but it does have a first rate educational system. Long term natural resources are also dependent of human inovation. As prices for comodities rise cheaper alternatives are found. The notion that Oil as we know it today will be the key source of energy even ten years from now is just unknown. Maybe coal gasification will be a real energy source. Our enemies both Commie and Jihadi are extrapolating from the present to the future.

However, mankind has seen the experiments with Marxist and Theological utopias fail miserably. This is not to imply that religion is a spent or evil force. The notion
that a state should be run as a theocracy is absurd. In a coherent country religion is respected and not enforced by fiat. There are places where religion is enforced by religious goon squads notably Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, they also start with 50% of the population out of the labor pool. Moreover religious minorites live in a Jim Crow status and by nature of what they are must be authoritarian. Israel's version of Corpral Klinger has advocated expulsion for residents with a Jewish father and non-Jewish mother. His slightly more lucid mentor advocates an offer of conversion or expulsion.

Iran is at its apex of power now and the longer we wait the weaker it becomes. We could eliminate the Iranian Navy but the impact on oil prices would be disasterous.
We could arm rebel groups in the Azeri and Kurdish regions. This would force Iran to focusdeal with its own insurgent mess. Ultimately the use of direct force should be on the table for leverage.

The situation in Iran is not as dire as many think. The question is not if the Mullahs will fall it is a question of where and when and we need an eye on the future.

Beamish in 08. What impact will this new media advisor have on the Beamish 08 campaign.

Many of you have inquired about what Beakerambo has been doing. He had a disasterous tryout for Dancing with the stars. His partner remains in a body cast as of this writing. His role as an exchange student in the next Harry Potter film ended up cut out of the film.

Harry: That exchange student is a disaster.
Hermonie: Yes but he is popular with the women.
Harry: Can you make sense of Professor Beamish's blast radius theories.
Hermonie: It seems that Beakerambo has mastered Profesor Beamish's theories of enhanced firepower. Even if he is a magical zero he gets the point across.
Harry: Beakerambo did you study levitation.
Beakerambo; Me Me Me Meep Privacy Mi Me Meep
Harry: Are you an idiot?
Beakerambo: Me me mi meep Lock and load meep
Hermonie; Harry remember Beakerambo may be a magical zero but he is Prof Beamish's top student in applied firepower.
Harry: There he goes no matter how many times he falls down flights of steps he never gets hurt.

19 comments:

Farmer John said...

beakerambo attends Hogwarth's? I never knew he was the scholarly type.

Rob said...

Iran is another country on the brink of Civil War, Iranians themselves do not like the current direction of their leadership, so we should use that to our advantage, if need be.

On the other hand, I really don't see how any Muslim nation could ever really be a good Democracy, they will always cater to a Theocracy first, following the Koran. So maybe, just maybe all this fighting in the middle east we seem to be hell bent on, is all for not, if real change is not being made, if your just replacing one evil for a lesser evil, it's pointless, it's still EVIL!

Just thought I pop in and throw out my two cents, well I'm off to work, have a good day Beak!

Always On Watch Two said...

Ultimately the use of direct force should be on the table for leverage.

I think I heard correctly....The USS Nimitz is heading for the Persian Gulf.

The question is not if the Mullahs will fall it is a question of where and when...

I hope you're right about that. Ayatollah Khatami is even more radical that Ayatollah Khomeini. The former was exiled by the latter for being too radical!

beakerkin said...

FJ

Beakerambo was permited into the school as an exchange student. His role and that of Prof Beamish were cut out of the film.

There was a hysterical scene with Beakerambo playing the seeker on the team. It seems that his antics overshadowed Potter inspite of his propensity for crashing into things and botching spells and potions.

He did excell at Prof Beamish's creative demolition class. He also was popular with the female students who viewed him as a cute clod.

Mr. Ducky said...

Death threats?

Really, you'd think a bunch of crazed muslims were getting excited over a cartoon. I notice this got no coverage in the American "liberal" (LMFAO) media.

Mr. Ducky said...

Does Beak have an alibi?

Farmer John said...

I think AA for muppets is only social justice. We've laughed at them for far too long...

beakerkin said...

FJ

It is all AOW's fault she helped Beakerambo pass the test. He's turned the place upside down.

The studio also cut the part where he turned himself into a Yam.

Ducky

Lets see how many people were killed over this chocolate bit. As far as the fire it isn't my style a butt kicking with steel toed shoes on these finks is more my style. I would kick commie butt first.

Mr. Ducky said...

Let the swiftboating begin

Payback's gonna be a bitch, Beak. Looks like Rudy "My Three Wives" Giuliani is in for some swiftboating. They are going to punch his corrupt teeth in.
Gonna take more than that fat cooze Oprah to rehabilitate him.

beakerkin said...

Compared to what the Clinton Mariatal idiocy or Obama's dope usage. If Americans could get past
the Clinton fiascos this is a walk in the park.

Bernie Keriks woes are trivial compared to Marc Rich, perjury, sexual harassment, dope abuse, pardons for terrorists, the New Square Saga, Whitewater, Chinagate, Filegate and the letting Bin Ladden go deal.

Obama has his own scandals that make these silly. These also pale in comparison to treason, manslaughter and using your hose as a brothel. Lets also add having relations with a teenage page all acts that do bot bother voters in MA.

Rudy is a hero and Gomer Kerry is still a zero except in Vietnam, Cuba and France.

Robert Bayn said...

Rudy Rudy Rudy!!!

Mr. Beamish the Kakistocrat said...

Beamish loves sensor-fused weapons.

Come get some, you Persian bitches.

Always On Watch Two said...

Duck,
I noted in that article mention of what might have happened had the display been a chocolate MTP, most especially during Ramadan. Does anyone doubt that Muslims' reactions would have been a lot more than "strong-arming"?

Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall that there were any riots over the chocolate Jesus. If I'm mistaken, Duck, drop me a link.

Addendum: Discussing this chocolate Jesus rendition has something to do with Beak's posting?

Always On Watch Two said...

Beak,
It is all AOW's fault she helped Beakerambo pass the test.

It's my job to help my friends pass tests.

Mr. Ducky said...

AOW, the issue is not what the muslim reaction would have been.The issue is censorship in the U.S.

Besides, the Danish cartoons were printed and European muslims reacted in the same way that groups reacted here. They informed the paper that the cartoons were offensive and asked that they not be printed again. There were no riots over this issue in Europe.

There were demonstrations by extremists in the Middle East who will use anything as an excuse to get radical followers into the streets.

As a teacher you should be less prone to straw man arguments than Beak, no?

Steve Harkonnen said...

Beak's perception that an all-out invasion of Iran would only help them is actually true. I believe that the current Iranian regime will implode long before they are destroyed by outside forces, i.e. the US and Israel.

Israel and the US will succumb to PC thinking, pandering and tolerance, which means nothing will get done. I have lost confidence in both countries' governments. For god sakes, look at Britain. Blair has not done anything and the so-called "royalty" hasn't done a thing either - not even a statement.

The reason those CVBG's are headed to the gulf is to fulfill the US Navy's primary mission: to keep the sea lanes open - most particularly, the Straits of Hormuz. Iran could close them by using derelict ships and also mines, thus cutting off the world's oil supply.

Mr. Beamish the Kakistocrat said...

I disagree, Steve.

Iran wouldn't be a problem if there were no Iranians.

Sure, we could take the time consuming route of eliminating certain specific Iranians with precision guided weaponry - but where's the fun in that?

No, Iran needs to ask the question "What can we do to stop American bombs from falling on us?"

Then we need to bomb them some more for asking questions without permission.

Warren said...

Duck, you are a fucking retard with pretensions of intelligence.

The Catholic League called for a boycott and the hotel housing the Lab gallery decided to cancel the exhibition. Big whoop!

The whole damed bunch of you effeminate leftists are cry babies!

The next time you use a word like censorship, try looking it up to see what it means.

Elmer's Brother said...

I'm still laughing at the fact that someone would consider a chocolate Jesus art!!!!! and just in time for Easter.

Someone turn up the heat.