Iran is at its apex of power now. A growing population with dwindling reserves and no other basis for an ecomony are daunting problems. On top if this are the restless minorities Azeris, Kurds, Balluch and a few others.
The paradox of the Mullahocracy is that their belicose rhetoric has scared the investors needed to fix the oil situation and extend its life. The mullocacy wasted its resources on expensive foreign ventures like Hezbollah. It neglected the future of Iran, but this is not surprising considering it is run by a messiah like cult waiting for the hidden Imam to arrive.
Time is not on Iran's side and the mullahs know it. The problem is EU, Russian and Chinese medling is stoking a fire that is dangerous. Putin is an enemy of the United
States presiding over a crumbling empire. He has a shrinking population and a mess in Chechnya. The mess could be resolved if the Balts and adjacent states start to send Russians packing but will they return to Russia or emigrate elsewhere. Whenever I pick up a case from Khazakistan it is a Russian or Jew leaving.
I would also take the Muslim threats to riot in France following a Sarkozy victory seriously. How Sarkozy reacts to the challenge is unknown? The possibility of a real intifada in France is quite real. Sarkozy also has Jewish blood that also will lead to all types of anti-semitic standards. He is allready being called by some a "neocon" in Commiespeak co-opted by Buchanan types this means evil Joooish reactionary. How will the sanctimonious Euros react to their own intifada. Maybe the
Muslims of France can whip up a fake ethnicity " New Algerian". Will the EU deploy forces to quell the riots. Left unsaid is that people who work seldom have time to riot. Maybe a Euro version of workfare would have allieviated some of this mess.
Things are looking better in 08. The shrill rhetoric of the Kossacks is pushing the Democrats way to the left. How Hillary or any nominee recaptures the center is unknown. The wild card is still Al Gore who loathes the Clintons in private. Look for a possible Gore last second candidacy to derail Hillary. Rudy owns the center and the only hope of the Dems is to try and drive his numbers down.
This moment is interesting.
5 comments:
Ducky
Putin's moves at any juncture in time change with the wind. It is clear he is seeking to create havok. He is also afraid of an Azeri rebellion in Iran.
Kuhnkat
Al Gore loathes the Clinton's and this is payback time. He knows he has no shot and will push Hillary left.
Duck,
Turns out that this payment problem is getting cleared up and the reactor is going to receive the fuel from the Russian contractor Atomstroyexport. that was reported a few days ago here:
http://www.isna.ir/Main/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-893456&Lang=E
However, considering the source...
Steve
Caveat Emptor with crazed Jihadis or bird brained Marxist. Trust but verify is always prudent.
Speaking of Iranian thugs interpol has sent out warrants for Iranian vermin and their Hezbollah thug Imad Mougniyah for their role in blowing up a Jewish house of Worship in Buenos Aires in 1994.
The Duck wants us to be sooo woried about Kahanists.
Iran is in a cleft stick. Events in Afghanistan and Iraq have meant its local influence has increased but as you point out, there is a risk of unrest among its ethnic minorities.
While I don't wish a destructive and vicious civil war on teh people of Iran (I would not wish that on anyone) I do hope to see the back of Iran's twisted regime sooner rather than later - if for nothing else, the sake of friends who live there
The Dem's real problem is that they've spent so much time driving out pro-War and conservative voices that there's no-one left who can win the presidency. Moveon.org nuts don't appeal to anyone to the right of say, Stalin.
Meanwhile, the conservative base in the Republican party is dissatisfied with both McCainiac and Guiliani, for one reason or another. This makes for an election where a lot of folks will want to stay home -- unless something interesting happens and fast.
Good points on Iran. The Mullahs didn't have much of an economy in the first place, and spending on Hezbollah was only viable unless it turned a profit quickly (which it has not -- and Israel knows this). So Iran is caught in a really tight place, making them ripe for the picking. We're just sitting out there in our naval carriers and destroyers, watching for their end.
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